Democrats will celebrate – and win – if Colorado GOP snubs unaffiliated voters
Elections are about addition.
In Colorado, neither Republicans nor Democrats can win an election purely by turning out their own base. To win, each party must add to its own turnout by persuading voters who are unaffiliated, members of “minor” parties or disaffected members of the rival major party.
Consider the share of ballots cast by Republicans and Democrats in the past three general elections:
- In 2016, Republicans cast 33.4% of all ballots to Democrats’ 32.7%.
- In 2018, Republicans trailed 31%-33%.
- In 2020, Republicans trailed 29%-31%.
In the last two elections, Republicans running statewide have started with a turnout deficit, so they needed to persuade more unaffiliated voters than did their Democrat opponents. But instead of improving their strategy to win the hearts and minds of unaffiliated votes (UAVs), Republicans have been falling further behind. Barack Obama won 60% of UAVs in 2012; Hillary Clinton won 62% in 2016; Jared Polis won 65% of UAVs in 2018; and Joe Biden won 65% of UAVs in 2020. (more…)